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【Industry】Three years after dormancy, breaking the "zero" embarrassment, 100 billion level nuclear power industry chain investment recovered

Time:2019-04-08

[China Environmental online clean energy] "nuclear power projects will be started in succession this year." Recently, Liu Hua, Vice Minister of the Ministry of ecological environment, said. This also means that after nearly four years of dormancy, nuclear power restart finally welcomes the spring breeze. In the view of many people in the industry, a number of three generation nuclear power units will be approved in 2019, which will also bring about nearly 100 billion investment volume.

 

"This year, nuclear power projects will be started in succession." Liu Hua, Deputy Minister of the Ministry of ecological environment and director of the national nuclear safety administration, said recently. Liu huaqiangdiao, "there are 56 nuclear power generating sets in operation and under construction in China, and the number of units has reached the third place in the world. China will continue to develop nuclear power on the premise of ensuring safety. " According to Liu Hua s introduction at that time, China now has 56 nuclear power generating sets, of which 38 are in operation, 18 are under construction, and the number of units under construction is the first in the world.

 

As the energy that can replace coal on a large scale and provide stable and reliable power for power grid, nuclear power is indispensable in the construction of green and low-carbon energy system in China. Compared with other clean energy sources, nuclear power generation has obvious advantages in carbon emission, power generation efficiency, stability and other aspects. The "size" of wind power and photovoltaic is relatively small and cannot be used as the main energy source, so nuclear power will still be the "big power generation" in the future. But the reality is that since December 2015, China s nuclear power industry has experienced a "zero approval" state for nearly four years. According to the data of China Nuclear Energy Industry Association, as of December 31, 2018, 44 nuclear power units have been put into commercial operation in China, with an installed capacity of 44.65 million kilowatts.

 

The reason why the Three-Generation nuclear power plant has been stagnant for more than three years is that the reliability and safety of the Three-Generation nuclear power plant still need to be verified. Only when the technology of the Three-Generation nuclear power plant is under control can the country fully spread. Up to now, China s nuclear power industry has formed a complete set of industrial chain with huge initial investment. Therefore, it is very important for the nuclear power industry to have a stable development expectation. Liu Baohua, deputy director of the national energy administration, previously pointed out that clean energy, including nuclear power, needs to be vigorously developed, and a new round of medium and long-term development plan for nuclear power needs to be studied and formulated to promote high-quality development of nuclear power.

 

As the early three generations of nuclear power gradually approached the commercial pilot and the 13th five year plan, and combined with the important strategic agreements signed between China and Russia, the probability of restart is increasing. With the gradual development of nuclear power technology and the continuous operation of units under construction in China, new nuclear power projects have gradually been put on the agenda. On March 18, the Ministry of ecological environment announced the environmental impact report (construction stage) of units 1 and 2 of Zhangzhou nuclear power plant in Fujian Province and the environmental impact report (construction stage) of the first phase project of Guangdong taipingling nuclear power plant in CGNPC.

 

According to two EIA documents, Zhangzhou nuclear power unit 1 and taipingling nuclear power unit 1 are scheduled to start construction in June 2019. The former is calculated according to the construction period of single unit of 60 months and the interval between two units of 10 months. Unit 1 will be put into commercial operation in June 2024, and unit 2 will be put into commercial operation in April 2025. It is reported that the four units all adopt hualong-1 technology, which is a combination of two technologies of CNNC acp1000 and CGNPC acpr1000 +. After the approval, the first tank of concrete (FCD) can be poured after passing the safety review, and the construction is officially started. It is optimistic that the FCD can be completed in the first half of 2019.

Even so, this attracted wide attention in the market, because the above-mentioned EIA documents revealed that the project commencement time was interpreted as a clear signal of nuclear power opening. According to the national nuclear power development goals previously proposed, and according to China s strategic action plan for energy development (2014-2020), by 2020, China s nuclear power installed capacity will reach 58 million kilowatts, and the capacity under construction will reach more than 30 million kilowatts. It is estimated that 6-8 nuclear power units will be started every year.

 

The restart of nuclear power projects means that with the further improvement of the maturity of nuclear power technology, the upstream development efficiency of the nuclear power industry will be significantly accelerated, which will also bring repair effect to the valuation of some nuclear power sector companies. Yesterday, a sudden rise in the nuclear power sector, the collective staged a trading tide, including wal nuclear material seal trading, China nuclear construction rose more than 6.8%. In the field of fourth generation nuclear power innovation, China has accelerated the implementation of the national science and technology major project of high temperature gas cooled reactor. The demonstration project of high temperature gas cooled reactor has entered the final stage of installation and commissioning, and will be completed and put into operation in the first half of next year.

 

Since the end of 2018, the expectation of nuclear power restart in the industry has become more and more strong. Before that, many securities companies issued research reports on nuclear power restart based on media reports. According to the prediction of Pacific Securities machinery industry team, if the construction of 10 units is started in the next three years and the average investment of each unit is 19.7 billion yuan, the direct investment will be about 19.9 billion yuan. In the investment of nuclear power plants, the investment of general nuclear power equipment accounts for about 49.87%, according to which, the annual market scale of nuclear power equipment is estimated to be about 79.9 billion yuan.

 

However, up to now, the relevant national departments have not released the approval information of specific nuclear power projects. "Nuclear power has been cold for eight years. Once it erupts, it will have great potential. But in the medium and long term, we still need to be alert to policy risks." It is expected that the first half of 2019 will be a high probability when information is officially released to the public or when the national nuclear safety administration issues a construction license, the said person. (source: China Environmental online)

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